Australian shorn wool production forecast of 324 Mkg greasy in 2023/24

• The latest Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s forecast of shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 324 Mkg greasy, 1.0% lower than the 2022/23 season estimate.
• The number of sheep shorn is forecast at 71.6 million head, up 0.1% due to held over lambs.
• Shorn wool production is expected to increase in New South Wales (up 2.7%) and South Australia (up 3.4%) but decrease in all other states.
• Average cut per head is forecast to reduce to 4.53 kg greasy (down 2.2%) due to dry seasonal conditions since the December forecast.
• The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2024/25 season is 306 Mkg greasy, a 5.8% decrease on the 2023/24 forecast.

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has updated its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2023/24 season. The fourth forecast is for production of 324 million kilograms (Mkg) greasy, 1.0% lower than the 2022/23 estimate and a 4 Mkg greasy downward revision of the December forecast.

Committee Chairman, Stephen Hill said that "the revised April forecast reflects the varied seasonal conditions across the key wool growing regions of Australia and the impact on numbers of sheep shorn and average cut per head. Held over lambs and older breeding ewes remain in the flock as sheep meat prices stay relatively low. The number of sheep shorn during 2023/24 is expected to remain at 71.6 million near the 2022/23 season level.”

“New South Wales is forecast to shear 26.6 million head this season (up 2.7%) despite the varied seasonal conditions across the state as the key wool producing regions in the central west and southeast have had a reasonable season to date with recent welcome widespread rain. The number of sheep shorn is expected to increase in South Australia due to favourable seasonal conditions in the pastoral regions but will remain either steady or decrease in other states.”

Average cut per head is expected to be 4.53 kg greasy, down 2.2% compared to 2022/23. AWTA key test data for the season to date show no change in mean fibre diameter (20.8 microns) or vegetable matter (2.2%), a 2.1 mm decrease in staple length to 87.5 mm and a 0.6% reduction in yield to 65.8%.

AWTA wool test volumes to the end of March 2024 were down by 2.9% on a year-on-year basis. First-hand offered wool at auction to the end of March 2024 (week 39) was up 1.4% compared with the same period in 2022/23.

The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2024/25 season is 306 Mkg greasy, a 5.8% decrease on the 2023/24 forecast.

Table 1: Summary of Australian wool production

	2022/23 Estimate	2023/24 Fourth forecast	Change y-o-y (%)	2024/25 First forecast	Change y-o-y (%)
Sheep numbers shorn (million head)	71.5	71.6	0.1%	67.3	-6.0%
Average cut per head (greasy kg/head)	4.59	4.53	-2.2%	4.55	0.0%
Shorn wool production (Mkg greasy)	328	324	-1.0%	306	-5.8%

 

Table 2: Total shorn wool production by state

Season	NSW	VIC	WA	SA	TAS	QLD	AUSTRALIA
2021/22 (Mkg greasy)	113.3	73.9	61.2	56.1	10.3	8.9	324
2022/23 (Mkg greasy)	119.0	70.0	60.6	56.7	10.2	11.3	328
Change y-o-y (%)	5.0%	-5.3%	-1.0%	1.1%	-1.0%	27.0%	1.3%
2023/24 Fourth Forecast (Mkg greasy)	122.2	68.7	55.6	58.6	9.3	10.1	324
Change y-o-y (%)	2.7%	-1.9%	-8.3%	3.4%	-8.8%	-10.6%	0.0%

 

Table 3: AWTA key test data for 2022/23 and 2023/24 (July to March)

	2022/23	2023/24	Change y-o-y
Mean fibre diameter (µm)	20.8	20.8	0
Staple length (mm)	89.6	87.5	- 2.1
Staple strength (N/ktex)	34.5	34.9	+ 0.4
Yield (%)	66.4	65.8	- 0.6
Vegetable Matter (%)	2.2	2.2	0

The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, sheep pregnancy scanners, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture and the Australian Wool Testing Authority. Data and input were also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, and Meat and Livestock Australia.

The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-August 2024.

The full forecast report will be available on the AWI website at www.wool.com/forecasts from 24th April 2024.

Released by:

Kevin Wilde

Australian Wool Innovation, General Manager, Consultation and Engagement